Putting 3Q15 Earnings in PerspectiveSubmitted by Wespac Advisors, LLC on December 22nd, 2015
- At the beginning of 2015, consensus was for S&P 500 operating earnings to reach around $130/share, or 15% higher than 2014.
- 2015 S&P 500 operating earnings are now forecast to be just $106/share based on a forecast of a 14% QoQ jump in earnings in 4Q15.
- Even with this dramatic forecast for a jump in 4Q15 earnings, 2015 will be the first year-over-year drop in earnings since 2007, now forecast to be down 5.9% YoY.
- 3Q15 operating earnings were $25.44/share. The last two times the earnings were around that level was in 3Q11 and at the peak of the earnings cycle in 2Q07.
- The S&P 500 closed at 1503 at the end of 2Q07, 1131 at the end of 3Q11, and 1920 at the end of 3Q15.
- With roughly the same operating earnings, the S&P 500 is now 27.7% higher now than it was at the market and earnings peak in 2007.